Insight

Aker ASA: planning now for a greener, cleaner energy future

AFHC, AGT, AVI March 2023 Asset Value Investors

Did you know that Norway is blessed with bodies of water stretching in/around swaths of green fields and it’s all thanks to its numerous fjords? So numerous in fact that two of its most famous fjords have been declared world heritage sites by UNESCO, confirming them to be national treasures amongst Norwegians. For reasons like this, hydroelectricity, and other sustainable methods of energy production have been continuously improved upon due to Norway’s commitment to the environment.

The events of 2022 and war in Ukraine has brought home the fundamental importance of energy sources and energy policy. Since 2008, AVI Global Trust (“AGT”) has invested in Aker ASA, a Norwegian holding company with exposure to both oil and gas and renewable energy technology. We made our initial investment due to Aker’s diverse portfolio of businesses, its commitment to innovation and sustainability, and its strong financial performance. Aker has a long history of building businesses and savvy capital allocation, making it an attractive long-term investment. As is typical of the best run family-controlled companies, Aker ASA think in generations not quarters, and as such have positioned themselves to play an important role in renewable energy with a focus on the longer term. We believe that two of Aker’s listed assets, Aker BP and Aker Horizons, will play a crucial role in delivering a secure and clean energy future.

Aker BP

In June 2022, Aker BP acquired the exploration and production assets of Lundin Energy. The merged company is now the second largest operating company on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, one of the world’s most important offshore oil and gas regions, and is home to Europe’s largest number of offshore oil and gas fields. Aker BP has committed to “lead the way” in delivering low-cost, low-carbon profitable growth.

In recent years, the energy industry has been volatile due to a shift in global demand, geopolitical tensions, and the growing urgency of reducing carbon emissions. The deplorable invasion of Ukraine by Russia has amplified this volatility and has highlighted deeper concerns over energy security and the dangers of over-dependence on foreign energy sources, for Europe and the wider world. In many respects, Russia’s actions in Ukraine, and the subsequent energy crisis, have focused Europe’s attention to the importance of creating energy-efficient systems that reduce energy waste and conserve valuable resources.

Over the short-term Aker BP’s share price is very much tied to oil and gas prices, and towards the latter half of 2022, fears of recession in Europe and the US, and a slowing of the Chinese economy due to continued COVID- related lockdowns led to significant concerns about the demand outlook for oil. Moreover, on the supply side, Russian oil production remained stubbornly high in the face of sanctions, and both China and India increased their purchases of Russian oil during 2022. In addition, there were record drawings of US Strategic Petroleum Reserves, an emergency stockpile maintained by the United States Department of Energy.

This combination of events led to a material set-back in oil prices. However, the long-term thesis of insufficient capital investment and production growth remain intact. It has been clear for some time that there is very limited spare capacity to absorb supply shocks, meaning the case for higher prices in the longer term still seems convincing. This bodes well for Aker BP, which accounts for 57%* of the NAV of Aker ASA. We therefore took this opportunity to add to our overall position in 2022.

Aker Horizons

Additionally, one of the reasons why we have such strong faith in the long-term future of Aker ASA is the company’s continued prioritisation of the longer-term role of renewables. In 2020 Aker announced the creation of Aker Horizons – a ‘holding company dedicated to developing and operating companies within renewable energy and low-carbon segments. Although currently just accounting for 8%* of NAV, Aker Horizons’ long-term prospects are compelling, as it develops green industrial projects, technologies and companies that accelerate the energy transition and pathway towards net zero carbon emissions.

Initially, Aker Horizons’ portfolio consisted of stakes in two assets spun-off from Aker Solutions: Aker Off-shore Wind and Aker Carbon Capture. In 2021 these have been complimented by the acquisition of a 75% stake in Mainstream Renewable Power (“MRP”), a company active in wind and solar energy internationally. The investment in MRP, inclusive of new equity, totalled €758m and was funded through a private placement, as well as the issuance of a convertible bond. Aker took part in both, and made a further loan to Aker Horizons, highlighting how holding companies can support their operating asset’s capital market activities. Subsequently Mitsui, the Japanese trading house, invested alongside Aker in MRP, at a commensurably higher valuation and adding further industrial know-how. Meanwhile Aker Horizons continues to invest in hydrogen-related fields, which could hold the key to helping decarbonize steel, transport, fertilizer, and high intensity industrial processes. Collectively, Aker Horizons’ companies are active across the whole value chain – from energy production, to transmission, and even the capture and storage of emissions.

Active Ownership & a Truly Long-term Horizon

Aker ASA believes it has an important role to play in the removal of Co2 in Norway, as Aker’s president and chief executive officer Øyvind Eriksen recently noted:

“We are committed to being a part of the solution in a way that faces up to realities and reckons between tomorrow’s climate ambitions and today’s energy needs”.

It is this continuous focus on the even longer term, controlled by a thoughtful shareholder, that continues to attract us to Aker ASA. Not only has Aker pre-emptively positioned itself to have an important role in renewable energy in the years ahead through Aker Horizons, but Aker BP offers a pure play, low-cost low-emission producer which will likely play an important and extended role in the energy transition.

*As at 31 January 2023

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Past performance should not be seen as an indication of future performance. The price of investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the full amount invested. The trust uses gearing techniques (leverage) which will exaggerate market movements both down and up which could mean sudden and large falls in market value. Please refer to the Key Features Document for further details effecting affecting your investment.

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