Riverstone Energy • February 2024
Riverstone Energy issued a statement regarding a return of capital to shareholders.
The trust is selling off its legacy oil and gas assets.
Riverstone Energy issued a statement regarding a return of capital to shareholders.
The trust is selling off its legacy oil and gas assets.
Riverstone Energy (RSE) was this month’s largest detractor, reducing returns by 65bps as its share price declined by -26%. We wrote extensively about RSE in the recently published annual report (AVI Global Trust – AGT – p. 34).
In summary, RSE has been negatively impacted by the decline in oil prices over the past year, with West Texas Intermediate falling -23% since the October 2018 peak, and multiples for listed US E&P companies falling much more dramatically. RSE’s third quarter statement reveals the extent of the downfall, with the portfolio currently held at 0.7x cost, compared to 1.4x just one year ago. Particular pain has been felt at Hammerhead Resources (11% of NAV), with infrastructure bottlenecks depressing local oil prices, and listed Centennial Resource Development (CDEV) (7% of NAV – down -25% in October and -85% over one year). In the case of CDEV, the current share price – combined with a conservative valuation placed on each flowing barrel – implies a negative value being assigned to its undeveloped acreage.
Our investment in RSE has clearly been a difficult one over the last year. While we are encouraged by the Board’s recent announcement that it was evaluating options to manage the discount, we believe that structural solutions will be required to sustainably narrow the discount.
Riverstone Energy (RSE) was the largest detractor with its share price falling by -16%. RSE has had a difficult year, with the price of West Texas Intermediate falling by -26%, which has impacted the valuations of its holdings. Unlisted holding Hammerhead, RSE’s largest investment at 20% of NAV, has been affected by government production caps placed on companies such as Hammerhead that operate in Western Alberta. Listed holding Centennial Development Resources (CDEV), where the share price has fallen by -79%, has been hit by the declining oil price, and management’s decision to dial down aggressive production growth plans.
While the move is sensible insofar as it keeps oil in the ground while the price is low, it also delays CDEV’s breakeven profitability until at least 2022 (management guided for 2020 previously).Overall, RSE’s holdings are valued at a multiple of investment cost (MOIC) of 0.9x, compared to 1.4x a year ago.
While we would not want to pre-judge the Board’s announcement that it has been evaluating measures to reduce the company’s discount, we believe that aggressive structural solutions will be required to sustainably narrow the discount and we continue to engage with the Board and management of RSE in order to achieve a satisfactory outcome for all parties.
The oil price (WTI) declined -16% over the month, hitting Riverstone
Energy (RSE) which was the largest detractor from returns over the
month, reducing AGT’s NAV by 52bps. RSE released a quarterly NAV at
the end of April, which contained write-downs that were somewhat
unexpected given the recovery of oil prices from December lows. Sole
listed holding Centennial Resource Development (CDEV; 9% of NAV)
continued to perform poorly, down -25% over the month. We
commented previously that negative/confused production guidance from
CDEV’s management was poorly received by the market, and recent oil
price declines have evidently compounded negative sentiment against
the company.
Riverstone Energy (RSE) was the largest detractor over the month,
detracting 32bps from returns on the back of a widening discount (24%
to 30%). Over the past six months, sentiment in the sector has been
negatively impacted by the decline in the oil price, which has served to
drag on returns for investors. This has been compounded by a poor
performance from sole listed holding Centennial Resource Development
(-60% over six months), where negative/confused production guidance
was poorly received by the market. We would expect the recovery in the
oil price (+40%) and in the US E&P sector (+18%) since year-end to
have had a positive impact on RSE’s Q1 valuations.
The other major detractor from the portfolio this month was Riverstone
Energy, which reduced returns by 19bps. The NAV declined by -6%
over the month, mitigated by a slight tightening of the discount by 2%.
While there was a tailwind in the oil price recovering by 6-7%, this was
countered by the weakening USD against GBP and a 31% drop in the
share price of sole listed holding Centennial Resources (10% of NAV)
as it guided down production by more than expected in response to the
weak oil price. Centennial’s CEO Mark Papa has much work to do to
regain the confidence of the sell-side and investors.
Riverstone Energy (RSE) was the second-largest detractor over the
month, reducing NAV by 13bps as the share price fell -2%. RSE
announced the sale of Meritage III (5% of NAV) at carrying value. We
would be disappointed were the proceeds not used to buy back
shares, which trade at a 26% discount at the time of writing.
Riverstone Energy continued its slide on the back of a further drop in the oil
price, while EXOR’s NAV declined in line with share price falls at its listed
holdings (Fiat Chrysler, Ferrari, and CNH Industrial). Pargesa, the Swisslisted
holding company, saw its discount narrow materially from 39.5% to
33.7% which was sufficient for it to register a positive return for the month
despite a falling NAV.
Riverstone Energy (RSE)’s official half-year NAV came in almost +2% above
market expectations due to lower-than-expected tax and performance fee
accruals, and this – in addition to a US dollar tailwind – helped push
Riverstone’s share price sharply higher (up +5% over the month). NAV
performance has been muted over the last year, up just +5% in the
company’s functional currency of USD with over half of this increase due to
US tax reform. The casual observer might regard this as chronic
underperformance given the headline oil price (WTI spot price) is up +40%
over the period, but this masks the move of the oil price curve into
backwardation with forward prices having risen by significantly less than spot
prices. With so much of RSE portfolio’s value being in the ground rather
than in current production, it is the prices years out that are relevant for NAVbased
valuations of portfolio companies. A further headwind is at work from
the contraction in EV/ EBITDA multiples for US E&P companies over the last
year, depressing valuations for portfolio companies carried out on a
comparable peer multiple approach. Lastly, RSE has a quarter of its portfolio
by value in the Permian basin where infrastructure bottlenecks have led to oil
produced in the basin selling at as much as an $18 discount to WTI, albeit
with a recovery in recent days to “only” $14.
Thus, the more nuanced backdrop for RSE’s portfolio is much less supportive
than one might think from the headlines. That said, we find many reasons for
optimism and continue to view RSE as a compelling investment. For
example, Riverstone’s largest investment, Hammerhead Resources (HHR,
29% of RSE’s NAV), operates a significant acreage position across the
Montney and Duvernay formations in Western Canada and is therefore far
removed from the pricing problems in the Permian (it has substantially
resolved its own egress issues through takeaway agreements with another
RSE portfolio company, midstream operator Meritage). HHR has an
exceptionally long runway for growth with multiple drilling locations at low
break-evens that offer extraordinary IRRs at current oil prices, with current
production of 30k barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) targeted to
increase to 120k boepd by 2022. This last point is key: while RSE’s portfolio
will clearly be affected by swings in the oil price, a critical driver of returns
across RSE’s largest holdings is growth in production.
Centennial Resource Development (CDEV, 18% of RSE’s NAV), the USlisted
shale producer headed by legendary CEO Mark Papa, is part of this
theme and sports one of the best debt-adjusted production growth rates in
the Permian (65k barrels of oil per day expected in 2022 versus less than 20k
in 2017). With the lowest net debt level across peers and a talented
technical team largely assembled from Mark Papa’s previous firm EOG
Resources, CDEV has been drilling some of the best-producing wells in the
basin and we simply do not see its growth prospects and these attributes
reflected in the company’s current share price. Critically, CDEV has taken
pro-active steps to ensure transportation for its gas production – while gas
forms a very low portion by value of CDEV’s total output, an inability to “get
the gas away” is an impediment to production of far more valuable oil. Its
peers that have failed to secure egress for their gas may well run into
problems over the next year.
While we try to maintain a healthy scepticism for any attempts to forecast
where oil prices are going, Mark Papa’s views deserve a hearing more than
most. Notably, CDEV is unhedged directionally on oil and Papa’s view is that
the surplus of future production implied by the downward-sloping oil curve will
simply not materialise given what he sees as excessively optimistic views on
shale production volumes given infrastructure constraints, a renewed focus
on cash-flow and discipline from US E&Ps, and shale basins being more
mature than the consensus perhaps appreciates.
Riverstone Energy also detracted from returns due to a widening discount,
out to 21%. The company has sufficient capital to fund a share buyback
programme, and we would like to see the Board act.
Riverstone Energy was our most material detractor, as its discount widened
out to 20% (from 14%) in a month which saw a reminder of management’s
prowess. Three Rivers III (Delaware sub-basin of the Permian; 11% of NAV)
was sold for a gross IRR of 49% and a multiple on cost of 2.2x. While the
lack of uplift to carrying value was disappointing, the sales process had
been going on for some time and the asset had been valued on that basis.
In the specific case of Three Rivers III, tax losses elsewhere in the portfolio
meant that no tax was payable upon its sale, but – more generally – RSE is a
beneficiary of US tax reform and future sales of assets will see significantly
less gross-to-net tax leakage than was previously the case. After monthend,
RSE made a partial sale of its successful investment in listed
Centennial Resource Development, the proceeds from which we believe are likely to be used in part to support the restructuring of Fieldwood, RSE’s
investee company active in the Gulf of Mexico. We continue to see material
scope for upside in the two investments in RSE’s portfolio on which we have
most transparency, Hammerhead Resources, and Centennial Resource
Development, which also happen to be its largest positions.
Riverstone Energy (RSE) saw its discount narrow by c. 800bps over the
month as a large sell order that had been weighing on the share price
completed. In addition, a further recovery in the oil price was not unhelpful.
Although unsurprising that sentiment towards RSE will often sway in line
with crude prices, the manager’s flexible “build-up” investment approach
with strategic investments made in the lowest-cost basins, the use of
conservative capital structures, and a pragmatic approach to hedging, have
seen material outperformance of the underlying commodity price. RSE’s
NAV is up +23% (in USD terms) since inception to 30-Jun-17, versus a fall in
WTI of -15% from RSE’s weighted average “in-price” of $54.
Riverstone Energy (RSE) was a solid contributor on the back of a narrowing
discount, in from 20% to 15%, helped by a stronger oil price from the middle
of the month onwards and steady buying from the manager’s reinvestment of
their recent performance fee proceeds. Towards the end of the month,
RSE’s second largest and sole-listed holding Centennial Resource
Development (CDEV) announced the acquisition of 35k contiguous net acres
adjacent to their existing acreage in the Delaware Permian basin. The deal,
which compares favourably in valuation terms to recent transactions in the
basin, almost doubles CDEV’s acreage and drilling locations. To fund the
deal, Riverstone will purchase $430m of newly-issued CDEV shares (of
which we expect RSE to provide a material portion) with the new CDEV
shares being issued at a fixed price of $14.54. This will be immediately
accretive to RSE’s NAV given CDEV’s shares ended the month at $18.20
and have since risen higher.
The Board of RSE is seeking approval for an amendment in its investment
policy to allow it to increase further its investment in top holding Canadian
International Oil Corporation (CIOC) through the exercise of CIOC warrants,
and we are supportive of this change given what we believe to be the
compelling prospects and conservative valuation of CIOC. The additional
investments in CDEV and CIOC have two key consequences. One possibly
overlooked feature of RSE has been the growing concentration of its
portfolio, and we estimate that CIOC and CDEV could account for over 60%
of RSE’s NAV after new investments are completed. With CIOC producing
quarterly reports and CDEV listed, there is far more transparency on the
portfolio than previously and compared to most other listed private equity
vehicles. Secondly, RSE’s cash will be much depleted and this could lead
the managers to seek near-term exits for other assets (note that at 2.3 years,
Riverstone’s average holding period is significantly shorter than that of
private equity buyout funds).
Riverstone Energy (RSE) was our top contributor, up 18% over the month as
the market reacted favourably to two deals. The first, which was actually
announced in late-July, saw Riverstone intervene in the IPO process for
Permian Delaware Basin player Centennial Resource Development (CRD) to
acquire the company from its private equity owners. Riverstone then
transferred the holding to its US-listed SPAC, Silver Run Acquisition Corp
(SRAQ), managed by “Godfather of Shale” Mark Papa of EOG Resources
fame, in return for SRAQ shares. By structuring the deal in this way, CRD
has begun life under its new management debt-free and with a substantial
cash balance, and has achieved a listing without any IPO discount being
required. For investors in RSE, the added NAV transparency of having a
listed holding is helpful at the margin, and SRAQ’s share price is already
almost 30% higher than the price Riverstone is paying for its shares which
adds 2% to our estimated NAV after taxes and performance fees.
Early August saw the first exit from RSE’s portfolio with the sale of Rock Oil
(c. 25k acres in the Midland sub-basin in the Permian) at a 55% uplift to
carrying value and a 2.08x multiple on cost. The sale adds a further 3.2% to
our estimated NAV after taxes and performance fees. Aside from the uplift,
the deal is significant for two reasons. Firstly, the substantial uplift over
carrying value validates Riverstone’s valuations, about which there had been
some (we believe largely mis-placed) scepticism. Secondly, it shows that
returns are not dependent on the oil price. The capital invested in Rock Oil
was drawn down at an average WTI-price of $51 vs $42 at the time the sale
agreement was signed. While we believe RSE’s performance fee structure
is flawed (deal-by-deal rather than based on NAV), this is mitigated
somewhat by the requirement that performance fees are reinvested in RSE
shares to be acquired in the market. Reinvestment of the performance fee
from the sale of Rock Oil will add another 1.3% to Riverstone’s existing
5.9% stake in RSE. We still see RSE as a compelling investment despite its
re-rating – the Managers have assembled a high quality portfolio focussed
on low-cost basins with attractive IRRs from drilling at current spot prices,
with the headline average WTI “in-price” of $52 for the portfolio rendered
even more appealing by the collapse in oil service costs and also drilling &
completion costs from technological breakthroughs. We first acquired a
position in RSE ten months ago and have added since for an average
purchase price that has given us a +33% return to date.
in other news that arrived at the end of the previous month, we were
pleased to see Riverstone Energy’s annual results contain a statement
from the Board that further equity raises at a discount would only occur
under “truly exceptional circumstances”. This follows a letter from AVI
to the Board recommending such a commitment be made to avoid a
structural “corporate governance discount” emerging on the shares.
A new position was established in Riverstone Energy, a London-listed
closed-end fund investing in private equity opportunities in the oil &
gas sector, at a 25% discount to NAV. With 40% of NAV in dry powder,
the experienced managers are extraordinarily well-placed to take
advantage of the low oil price to acquire high quality assets from
distressed operators. Hedges in place and exposure to gas as well as oil
provide a cushion against the continuing oil price slump on the invested
portion of the assets. We “held our nose” to invest in the company as
part of a placing of shares at a discount to NAV, an action to which we
are opposed on principle. We have since written to the Chairman
advising him that the company risks trading with a permanent
corporate governance discount in the event this becomes a habit.
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The information on this website is provided to you for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investments or related services that may be referenced on this website.The information on this website is subject to change without notice.
This website is primarily intended for UK residents. It is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any U.S. persons or persons in any other country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
It is your responsibility to observe all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction.
No Tax or Legal Advice
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As a result of money laundering regulations, additional documentation for identification purposes may be required when you make your investment. Full details are contained in the relevant subscription documents.
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As with all financial or investment matters, you should exercise great care in using the information provided on this website or available through links from this website. You should research the facts, opinions and strategies mentioned in this website before making any financial investment decisions. If you are unsure about the meaning of any information provided please consult your financial adviser or other professional adviser.
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Whilst all reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this website, AVI cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, either expressly or implied. Neither AVI, any of its directors, officers or employees, nor any third party vendor, will be liable or have any responsibility of any kind for any loss or damage that you incur in the event of any failure or interruption of this site, or resulting from the act or omission of any other party involved in making this site or the data contained therein available to you, or from any other cause relating to your access to, inability to access, or use of the site or these materials, whether or not the circumstances giving rise to such cause may have been within the control of AVI, or of any vendor providing software or services support.
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In no event shall AVI be liable to any indirect, incidental, special or consequential damages arising out of or in connection with the use of this website, the inability to use this site or any products or services obtained or stored in or from this website, whether based on contract, tort, strict liability or otherwise. These limitations also apply to any third party claims against users.
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Copyright Policy
No permission is granted to copy, distribute, modify, post or frame any text, graphics, video, audio, software code, or user interface design or logos.
Hyperlinks
The existence of hyperlinks should not be construed as an endorsement, approval or verification by AVI of any content available on third party sites. By providing access to other websites, we are not recommending the purchase or sale of products or services provided by the website’s sponsoring organization. We do not review any of these third party sites. AVI reserves the right to require written consent for, or request the removal of, any links to our website.
AVI disclaims all responsibility for the content of third party sites
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General Terms
Deliberate misuse of any element of this website including, without limitation, hacking, introduction of viruses or similar code, disruption or excessive use or any use in contravention of applicable law, is expressly prohibited and we reserve the right to terminate your access to the website, and at our discretion, pass information to the legal authorities.
We reserve the right at any time on giving notice to change or modify these terms and conditions or to impose new conditions in respect of this website or to change or discontinue any aspect or feature of this website. We shall be entitled to terminate your access to this website at any time on giving notice to you and in any event if you commit any breach of these terms and conditions. We shall have no liability to you for such termination. Notices may be served by any reasonable method including posting on this website.
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AVI Global Trust – General Risk Factors
AVI Global Trust plc is a public company listed and traded on the London Stock Exchange.
Past performance should not be seen as an indication of future performance. The price of investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the full amount invested. The trust uses gearing techniques (leverage) which will exaggerate market movements both down and up which could mean sudden and large falls in market value. Please refer to the Key Features Document for further details effecting affecting your investment.
Applications to invest in AV Global Trust referred to on this Site, must only be made on the basis of the current Key Features Document, or other applicable terms and conditions. Past performance should not be seen as an indication of future performance. Market and exchange rate movements may cause the value of a fund to rise or fall and an investor may not get back the amount invested.
As a result of money laundering regulations, additional documentation for identification purposes may be required when you make your investment. Details are contained in the relevant application documents. If you are unsure about the meaning of any information provided please consult your financial adviser or other professional adviser.
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The information on this website is not directed at any person or entity in the United States, and this site is not intended for distribution or to be used by any person or entity in the United States unless those persons or entities are existing investors in funds managed by AVI and they have applicable US exemptions.
Nothing on this website constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice nor should it be relied upon in making an investment decision.
The funds referred to in this website are alternative investment funds (“AIFs”). The promotion of such funds and the distribution of offering materials in relation to such funds is accordingly restricted by law.
Shares in the funds mentioned in this website are not dealt in or on a recognised or designated investment exchange, nor is there a market maker in such shares, and it may therefore be difficult for an investor to dispose of his shares.
The information on this website is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of any offer to buy shares in any fund managed by AVI.
An application for shares in any of the funds referred to on this site should only be made having fully read the relevant prospectus and most recent financial statement and semi-annual financial statements published thereafter.
The Information is provided for information purposes only and on the basis that you make your own investment decisions and do not rely upon it.
AVI is not soliciting any action based on it and it does not constitute a personal recommendation or investment advice.
Should you have any queries about the investment funds referred to on this website, you should contact your financial adviser.
Past performance is not an indication of future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount invested.
The funds noted in this website may be subject to higher risk and volatility than other funds and may not be suitable for all investors. These funds are not regulated.
Exchange rates may cause the value of overseas investments and the income arising from them to rise or fall.
The levels and bases of and reliefs from taxation may change. Any tax reliefs referred to are those currently available and their value depends on the circumstances of the individual investor. Investors should consult their own tax adviser in order to understand any applicable tax consequences.
The information on this website, including any expression of opinion or forecast, has been obtained from, or is based on, sources believed by AVI to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to their accuracy or completeness and should not be relied upon.
You should be aware that the Internet is not a completely reliable transmission medium. AVI does not accept any liability for any data transmission errors such as data loss or damage or alteration of any kind, including, but not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential damage, arising out of the use of the products or services referred to herein. This does not exclude or restrict any duty or liability that AVI has to its customers under the regulatory system in the United Kingdom.
To make a complaint about this website ,please send a written complaint for the attention of the Compliance Officer at the registered address: 2 Cavendish Square, London W1G 0PU.
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The existence of hyperlinks should not be construed as an endorsement, approval or verification by AVI of any content available on third party websites. By providing access to other websites, we are not recommending the purchase or sale of products or services provided by the website’s sponsoring organization. We do not review any of these third party websites.
No permission is granted to copy, distribute, modify, post or frame any text, graphics, video, audio, software code, or user interface design or logos.
Nothing on this site should be considered as granting any licence or right under any trademark of AVI or any third party.
Deliberate misuse of any element of this Website including, without limitation, hacking, introduction of viruses or similar code, disruption or excessive use or any use in contravention of applicable law, is expressly prohibited and we reserve the right to terminate your access to the Website, and at our discretion, pass information to the legal authorities.
We reserve the right at any time on giving notice to change or modify these terms and conditions or to impose new conditions in respect of this website or to change or discontinue any aspect or feature of this website. We shall be entitled to terminate your access to this website at any time on giving notice to you and in any event if you commit any breach of these terms and conditions. We shall have no liability to you for such termination. Notices may be served by any reasonable method including posting on this website.
These terms and conditions shall be governed by and construed in accordance with the laws of England without regard to conflicts of law principles. Nothing in these Terms and Conditions will exclude or restrict any duty or liability we may have under applicable rules or regulations. You irrevocably waive any right to a jury trial in any dispute or proceeding arising from the use of this site.